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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 89

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model