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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model