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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to IND 15, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 32 for 17 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model