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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 4-J.Berry punts 31 yards to IND 7, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-31-M.Hilton.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP