4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model