Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- CAR defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.050 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.097 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
MIA
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:55 FG CAR (1:55) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 0 – CAR 3
- Q2 07:05 TD CAR (7:05) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – CAR 9
- Q2 02:19 TD MIA (2:19) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 89-J.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CAR 10
- Q2 00:24 TD CAR (:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-50-A.Branch, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 7 – CAR 16
- Q3 11:57 TD CAR (11:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – CAR 23
- Q3 07:22 TD CAR (7:22) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – CAR 30
- Q3 05:58 TD MIA (5:58) 79-S.Young reported in as eligible. 32-K.Drake left tackle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – CAR 31
- Q3 03:14 TD CAR (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – CAR 37
- Q4 08:28 TD CAR (8:28) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – CAR 44
- Q4 04:13 TD MIA (4:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – CAR 45
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:16) 16-M.Haack punts 48 yards to CAR 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 17 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 20%
(9:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to MIA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:37) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to CAR 43, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 45 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas; 34-S.Perry). PENALTY on CAR-10-C.Samuel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 45.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%
(1:55) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%
(13:23) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to CAR 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%
(:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 24%
(9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Williams up the middle to MIA 48 for -1 yards (99-K.Short; 59-L.Kuechly).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(:12) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to CAR 17, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.