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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model