Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to CAR 43, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 45 for 2 yards (31-M.Thomas; 34-S.Perry). PENALTY on CAR-10-C.Samuel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.30 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model