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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 16-M.Haack punts 48 yards to CAR 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 17 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model