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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to MIA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP