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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to CAR 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model