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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LA
46.8%
NYG
53.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.086 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.098 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LA

No players on the report.

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Justin Pugh G Out Back
Weston Richburg C Out Concussion
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle
Kerry Wynn DE Out Knee
Jonathan Casillas LB Out Neck
Donte Deayon CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 51
–
NYG 17

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 TD LA (11:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Moss]. LA 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 03:22 TD NYG (3:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 12-T.King for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 14:55 FG LA (14:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – NYG 7
  • Q2 09:39 TD LA (9:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – NYG 7
  • Q2 07:28 TD LA (7:28) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-S.Watkins for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – NYG 7
  • Q2 04:06 FG NYG (4:06) 2-A.Rosas 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. LA 24 – NYG 10
  • Q2 01:18 FG LA (1:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 27 – NYG 10
  • Q3 11:42 TD LA (11:42) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – NYG 10
  • Q3 06:34 TD LA (6:34) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Moss]. LA 40 – NYG 10
  • Q3 03:34 TD LA (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 47 – NYG 10
  • Q4 09:40 TD NYG (9:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 88-E.Engram for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 48 – NYG 16
  • Q4 03:03 FG LA (3:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 51 – NYG 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (14:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:09) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LA 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at NYG 14 for 57 yards (9-B.Wing). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 39.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (4:06) 2-A.Rosas 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%

    (2:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (1:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:03) 9-B.Wing punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, recovered by NYG-46-C.Munson at NYG 18. 46-C.Munson to NYG 18 for no gain (54-B.Hager).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:33) 9-B.Wing punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NYG 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 77%

    (3:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:18) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to LA 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 36 for 15 yards (29-N.Berhe).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:29) 34-M.Brown right end to LA 43 for -1 yards (46-C.Munson). FUMBLES (46-C.Munson), recovered by LA-66-A.Blythe at LA 43. 66-A.Blythe to LA 43 for no gain (96-J.Bromley).