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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 48

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 9-B.Wing punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP