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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model