Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LA 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at NYG 14 for 57 yards (9-B.Wing). PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model