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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model