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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 51 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(:29) 34-M.Brown right end to LA 43 for -1 yards (46-C.Munson). FUMBLES (46-C.Munson), recovered by LA-66-A.Blythe at LA 43. 66-A.Blythe to LA 43 for no gain (96-J.Bromley).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.75 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -0.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model