IND @ HOU — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano

Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien

Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

IND

36.0%

HOU

64.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

IND offense: -0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
QB edge to IND: Tom Savage (HOU) -0.286 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.129 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Tom Savage in place of Deshaun Watson)
HOU defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
IND defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 16

–

HOU 22

Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

Matt Jones RB Out Ankle

John Simon LB Out Neck

Quincy Wilson CB Out Knee

Anthony Castonzo T Questionable Knee

HOU

Dylan Cole LB Out Hamstring

Joel Heath DE Out Knee

Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Shin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20

–

HOU 14

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:41 TD IND (8:41) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 0
Q2 04:37 FG IND (4:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – HOU 0
Q2 01:05 TD HOU (1:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 39 for -10 yards (35-E.Pleasant). FUMBLES (35-E.Pleasant) [35-E.Pleasant], RECOVERED by HOU-58-L.Houston at IND 34. 58-L.Houston for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – HOU 6
Q3 02:15 TD IND (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 16 – HOU 7
Q4 09:17 FG IND (9:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – HOU 7
Q4 06:19 TD HOU (6:19) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(12:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for 11 yards (9-S.Lechler; 43-C.Moore). PENALTY on IND-85-B.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at IND 16.
Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(7:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 25 for no gain (14-C.Thompson).
Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(6:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 34.
Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(4:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 19 for 13 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 46-J.Weeks).
Q1 IND 4th & 4 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(3:14) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 30 for no gain (28-C.Milton).
Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

(13:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 40%

(11:03) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-A.Morrison.
Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(9:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to IND 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

(4:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 41

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 53%

(2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 77

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP

p(convert) 69%

(12:25) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(10:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters.
Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(7:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 34 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker).
Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(5:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

(13:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

(9:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 46 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

(3:17) 2-R.Sanchez punts 26 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage sacked at IND 17 for -10 yards (93-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (93-J.Sheard) [93-J.Sheard], touched at IND 23, RECOVERED by IND-52-B.Mingo at IND 34. 52-B.Mingo to IND 34 for no gain (12-B.Ellington).