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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model