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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 21

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model