Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model