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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 55

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model