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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-A.Morrison.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.87 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP