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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LAC
52.9%
OAK
47.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LV starting Derek Carr in place of EJ Manuel)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
OAK 21
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LAC

Jatavis Brown LB Questionable Ankle
Branden Oliver RB Questionable Hamstring
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Mike Williams WR Questionable Back

OAK

Gareon Conley CB Out Shin
Antonio Hamilton CB Out Knee
Marquel Lee LB Out Ankle
Jamize Olawale RB Out Concussion
David Amerson CB Questionable Shoulder
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
DeAndre Washington RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 17
–
OAK 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:15 TD LV (5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – OAK 6
  • Q2 01:47 TD LAC (1:47) 28-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – OAK 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 2-G.Tavecchio 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. LAC 7 – OAK 10
  • Q4 10:24 TD LAC (10:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-M.Gordon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – OAK 10
  • Q4 08:01 TD LV (8:01) 84-C.Patterson left end for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – OAK 16
  • Q4 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 9-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. LAC 17 – OAK 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (11:14) 9-N.Novak 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 64%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen (38-T.Carrie).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:56) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to LAC 7, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-16-J.Holton.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LV 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 24 for 5 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:41) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 18 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 28-M.Gordon left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 81%

    (:04) 2-G.Tavecchio 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 22. 30-J.Richard to LV 22 for no gain (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:02) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to LAC 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 46%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 15-M.Crabtree.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:19) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to LV 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 13 yards (25-R.Jenkins, 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:19) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to LAC 8, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 8 for no gain (41-E.Harris).