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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to LAC 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.58 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP