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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to LAC 7, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-16-J.Holton.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model