Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 22. 30-J.Richard to LV 22 for no gain (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model