4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-G.Tavecchio 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.66 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model