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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LV 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 30-J.Richard to LV 24 for 5 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP