NYG @ PHI — 4th & Data

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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson

Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYG

34.2%

PHI

65.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYG offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
PHI defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
NYG defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.006 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.085 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19

–

PHI 23

Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Shin

Bobby Hart T Out Ankle

J.T. Thomas LB Out Groin

Janoris Jenkins CB Questionable Ankle

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Ankle

Corey Graham S Out Hamstring

Destiny Vaeao DT Out Wrist

Jaylen Watkins S Out Hamstring

Torrey Smith WR Questionable Illness

Rodney McLeod S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 24

–

PHI 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 09:33 TD PHI (9:33) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-29-L.Blount, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 0 – PHI 6
Q3 05:19 TD PHI (5:19) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 13
Q4 12:45 TD NYG (12:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 6 – PHI 14
Q4 10:53 TD NYG (10:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NYG 13 – PHI 14
Q4 07:24 TD NYG (7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – PHI 14
Q4 05:46 TD PHI (5:46) 30-C.Clement left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 21 – PHI 20
Q4 03:11 FG NYG (3:11) 2-A.Rosas 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 24 – PHI 21
Q4 00:56 FG PHI (:56) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. NYG 24 – PHI 24
Q4 00:01 FG PHI (:01) 4-J.Elliott 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. NYG 24 – PHI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 51%

(13:00) 8-D.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Philadelphia challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(7:23) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

(9:31) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-21-P.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.
Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 38

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 56%

(4:07) 9-B.Wing punts 28 yards to PHI 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 53

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 20%

(:56) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 49 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

(2:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at NYG 49 for -6 yards (59-D.Kennard).
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

(:24) 26-O.Darkwa up the middle to PHI 2 for -1 yards (59-J.Walker; 75-V.Curry).
Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:20) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to PHI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 82-T.Smith to PHI 25 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).
Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

(9:25) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 38%

(6:37) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYG 44 for 1 yard.
Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

(1:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (21-P.Robinson) [93-T.Jernigan].
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(14:56) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to NYG 45, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(8:02) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NYG 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 17-D.Harris to NYG 27 for no gain. PENALTY on NYG-17-D.Harris, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 27.
Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 23 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

(3:11) 2-A.Rosas 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 28 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

(:56) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69%

(:19) 9-B.Wing punts 28 yards to PHI 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.