Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(14:20) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to PHI 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 82-T.Smith to PHI 25 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model