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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to PHI 49 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model