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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-D.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Philadelphia challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.59 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP