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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model