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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

SEA
31.5%
GB
68.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.281 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SEA

Michael Wilhoite LB Doubtful Calf
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Shoulder
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Thigh
Frank Clark DE Questionable Wrist
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Knee
Thomas Rawls RB Questionable Ankle
Delano Hill S Questionable Shoulder

GB

Montravius Adams DE Out Foot
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 9
–
GB 17

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 7-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Penalty on GB-31-D.House, Running Into the Kicker, declined. SEA 3 – GB 0
  • Q3 10:39 TD GB (10:39) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 6
  • Q3 04:23 FG SEA (4:23) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 6 – GB 7
  • Q3 00:22 TD GB (:22) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-52-T.Garvin, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. SEA 6 – GB 13
  • Q4 08:05 FG GB (8:05) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel. SEA 6 – GB 17
  • Q4 06:21 FG SEA (6:21) 7-B.Walsh 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 9 – GB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to GB 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 17 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 42%

    (8:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to GB 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:41) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to SEA 25, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (15:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 59 yards to GB 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 12 for no gain (58-D.Alexander).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:21) 8-J.Vogel punts 45 yards to SEA 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to GB 5, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:24) 8-J.Vogel punts 57 yards to SEA 35, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 42 for 7 yards (25-M.Evans). PENALTY on SEA-38-T.Madden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to GB 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-81-N.Vannett.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%

    (1:03) 8-J.Vogel punts 32 yards to SEA 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:10) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to SEA 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (4:23) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to GB 25, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-84-A.Darboh.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (8:05) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (6:21) 7-B.Walsh 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.