Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(5:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to GB 29, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-81-N.Vannett.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.04 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model