Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(13:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to GB 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 17 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model