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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 7-B.Walsh 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model