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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to GB 5, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model