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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

OAK
34.1%
TEN
65.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.171 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.112 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
TEN 27
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

OAK

Keith McGill S Out Foot
Jamize Olawale RB Out Quadricep
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Shin
Cory James LB Questionable Knee
Sebastian Janikowski K Questionable Back

TEN

LeShaun Sims CB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 26
–
TEN 16

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:02 TD LV (13:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. OAK 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 07:04 TD TEN (7:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 7 – TEN 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG LV (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – TEN 7
  • Q2 00:48 FG TEN (:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. OAK 10 – TEN 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – TEN 10
  • Q3 04:36 FG LV (4:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 16 – TEN 10
  • Q3 00:01 FG TEN (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. OAK 16 – TEN 13
  • Q4 12:04 TD LV (12:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 10-S.Roberts for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 22 – TEN 13
  • Q4 04:54 FG TEN (4:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. OAK 23 – TEN 16
  • Q4 01:14 FG LV (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 26 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (:45) 24-M.Lynch right guard to TEN 2 for 1 yard (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to LV 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 14.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 20 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 20%

    (7:14) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to TEN 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:31) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LV 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at LV 18 for 5 yards (14-E.Weems; 41-B.Trawick). PENALTY on LV-56-X.Woodson-Luster, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:36) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to TEN 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 32 for 7 yards (84-C.Patterson). PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 30.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LV 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

    (4:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (10:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (6:59) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (4:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.