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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP