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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to LV 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP