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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 3
Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 7
What Actually Happened
(:45) 24-M.Lynch right guard to TEN 2 for 1 yard (59-W.Woodyard).
The Three Options
GO
+3.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.22 EP
KICK
+1.46 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
