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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP