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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model