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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-09-10 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CAR
44.3%
SF
55.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.014 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.051 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22
–
SF 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CAR

Cole Luke CB Out Ankle
Jared Norris LB Out Groin
Vernon Butler DT Doubtful Knee
Daeshon Hall DE Questionable Knee
Kyle Love DT Questionable Ankle
Cam Newton QB Questionable right Shoulder
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Ankle

SF

Jimmie Ward S Doubtful Hamstring
George Kittle TE Questionable Hamstring
Aaron Lynch DE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 23
–
SF 3

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 TD CAR (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 19-R.Shepard for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 21. 21-yds YAC CAR 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 03:28 FG CAR (3:28) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG CAR (:05) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 13 – SF 0
  • Q3 11:32 TD CAR (11:32) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 28-J.Stewart for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 11. 11-yds YAC CAR 19 – SF 0
  • Q3 03:14 FG CAR (3:14) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 23 – SF 0
  • Q3 00:13 FG SF (:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. CAR 23 – SF 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 18 for 9 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 34%

    (7:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to CAR 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%

    (6:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 48 for -8 yards (58-T.Davis).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (3:28) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 36%

    (:46) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle to CAR 45 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei; 96-W.Horton).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CAR 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 3 yards (38-A.Colbert).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (3:14) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 21%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 15-P.Garcon to CAR 30 for 22 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Defensive Holding, declined. Caught at CAR 46. 16-yds YAC

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (8:54) 28-C.Hyde right end to CAR 1 for no gain (58-T.Davis).