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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 46

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to CAR 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP