Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(12:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 18 for 9 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model