Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(6:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.16 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model