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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CAR 29, Center-86-K.Nelson. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 32 for 3 yards (38-A.Colbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model